July 18, 2011

A new ChangeWave survey of 4,163 consumers has taken a fresh look at smart phone demand trends – including mobile OS and smart phone preferences going forward.

The June survey focused on key comparisons between the Apple iOS and Google Android OS – including the impact of Apple’s new iCloud service – along with the latest momentum trends for Motorola and Research in Motion.

We note that this survey focuses primarily on the North American smart phone market – with the sample being 89% U.S. respondents and 11% outside the U.S.

ChangeWave Research is a division of leading analyst and data company The 451 Group.

Mobile OS Preferences Among Consumers

The Apple iOS and Google Android OS continue to dominate preferences for mobile operating systems, according to the latest ChangeWave survey results.

Going forward, the Apple iOS remains the number one preference for buyers – with 46% of those planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days saying they prefer to have the Apple iOS on their new phone, up 2-pts since the March survey.

* Note: Estimated Sep 2008 data

Firmly in second in the North American market, the Android OS (32%) has registered a slight uptick (up 1-pt) in terms of future buyer preference. In contrast, Research in Motion’s BlackBerry OS (4%; down 1-pt) has once again hit its lowest level ever in a ChangeWave survey.

OS Customer Satisfaction. We also looked at OS customer satisfaction ratings based upon the operating system consumers have on their smart phones, and once again Apple is the clear leader – with 70% of customers using the iOS saying they are Very Satisfied.

The Android OS ranks second, with half (50%) of its users saying they’re Very Satisfied.

Both industry leaders are far ahead of the overall Very Satisfied ratings for the other major operating systems – Windows OS (27%) and RIM OS (26%).

But in an encouraging sign for Microsoft, we continue to see a big difference between the high Very Satisfied rating for Windows Phone 7 (57%) vs. the much lower rating for Windows Mobile OS (14%). Even so, the higher Windows Phone 7 rating has yet to produce a sustained momentum boost for Microsoft in term of buyer preferences.

Impact of Apple iCloud Service

Apple recently announced the iCloud service, which will automatically store music, photos, apps, calendars, documents, ebooks, etc., and wirelessly push them to any Apple device – allowing anytime, anywhere access for users.

With iCloud – which becomes available this fall – Apple joins competitors Google, Amazon and Microsoft in providing a product that many expect will change the way consumers use smart phones and other media devices.

We took a close-up look at the potential impact of the iCloud service going forward, and found 29% of Apple product owners say Apple’s iCloud announcement makes them More Likely to buy Apple products in the future, as do 13% of Non-Apple owners.

This initial look at the impact of Apple’s new iCloud service shows it enhancing existing customer loyalty. But the survey also provides highly encouraging signs that iCloud will generate additional customer demand for other Apple products, not only from current Apple product owners but from a substantial numbers of non-owners as well.

Smart Phone Manufacturer Demand

Despite no new Apple model launch, demand still appears strongest for the iPhone in terms of North American planned purchasing.

Nearly half of respondents (48%) planning on buying a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’ll get an iPhone – up 1-pt since our previous survey in March and the highest level of demand in the smart phone industry.

The same can’t be said for Motorola (8%; down 4-pts). After benefitting tremendously in the years Verizon subscribers were barred from the iPhone market, Motorola is now seeing a loss of market share at least partially attributable to the Verizon iPhone release that occurred earlier this year.

Still, Motorola’s situation is considerably less daunting than that of Research in Motion’s.

In seven of the past 10 ChangeWave quarterly surveys since 2008 we have seen a drop in RIM’s planned purchase share. Importantly, its customer satisfaction ratings have also fallen in nine of the past 10 ChangeWave surveys – and our latest survey shows them at their lowest level ever for this most critical of indicators.

For now, the dominant story in smart phones remains the escalating horse-race between Apple and Android.

The complete ChangeWave report is available here.

Report details include:

• Competition between Apple (AAPL), Motorola (MMI), Research In Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Samsung and HTC, among others
• Customer Satisfaction Ratings by Manufacturer
• Satisfaction Comparison: Apple vs. RIM BlackBerry – 4 Year Comparison
• Planned Buying Trends by Operating System – biggest winners and losers
• 3 Year Comparison of Android OS Demand vs. Apple iOS Demand
• Customer Satisfaction Ratings by Mobile OS
• Growth Trends: Overall Smart Phone Market
• Impact of Apple iCloud Service and Planned Consumer Usage
• Mobile Apps: Android OS vs. Apple iOS – comparison of money spent and number of apps downloaded in past 90 days

About ChangeWave Research
ChangeWave Research is an independent research firm that identifies and quantifies change in telecom trends, consumer spending & electronics trends, and corporate buying & business trends. This is accomplished through a weekly series of large sample surveys to its network of 25,000 accredited business and technology professionals, and early-adopter consumers, working in more than 20 industries. ChangeWave offers research reports via subscription to its three different survey series - ChangeWave Telecom series, Consumer Spending & Electronics series and Corporate Buying & Business Trends series. To learn more, visit www.changewaveresearch.com.

About The 451 Group
The 451 Group is a leading technology-industry analyst company focused on the business of enterprise IT innovation. The company's analysts provide critical and timely insight into the market and competitive dynamics of innovation in emerging technology segments. Clients of the company - at vendor, investor, service-provider and end-user organizations - rely on The 451 Group's insight to support both strategic and tactical decision-making. The 451 Group is headquartered in New York, with offices in key locations, including San Francisco, Washington, DC, London, Boston, Seattle and Denver. For additional information on The 451 Group, go to: www.the451group.com.